The following bulleted items contain information that may help you better understand the process that Platte River uses to make its load forecasts:
- Monthly demand and energy forecasts are developed using PC-based forecasting software. Historical demand and energy data for the Platte River system and historical and projected weather data for the area are used by the model to develop a base case forecast. The actual loads will likely be somewhat different than the forecast.
- Daily forecasts may be significantly different than the base case forecast. The daily load forecast is based on the weather forecast and the recent weather trends. Our loads are very sensitive to changes in temperature, humidity, sky conditions (clear or cloudy), and whether there has been a continuous series of hot or cold days.
- There is no way of guaranteeing that our forecast before a given hour will match the integrated actual reading computed after the hour. The hourly forecast is a Platte River staff member’s best estimate of the load for a given hour. The actual load for an hour is based on 20 different readings taken every three minutes during an hour. The “integrated” total of those 20 readings is the recorded load for that hour.
- The numbers shown on both the graph and the table are NOT used for billing. while we monitor the meter operation during the month at the substations to assure acceptable operation, we may find that a meter error occurred during the month. What looked like a peak monthly load on a given day may not be accurate, or what looked like a non-peak day may, in fact, been the peak day for the month.
- Watch the load forecasts carefully. The best advice we can offer is that if the daily forecast is within 10 percent of the projected monthly peak, careful attention should be paid to forecast changes throughout the day. If the daily forecast shows the load getting within five percent of the forecasted monthly peak, it should be assumed that a monthly peak could occur.